Population Analysis

Do you know how to exploit your opponents? Sometimes we can take a quick look at villain’s stats and then figure out the most profitable play. Unfortunately this requires a big sample size and quite often we just have to treat our opponents as unknown. So, does this mean that we can’t exploit our villain?

The answer is no. We can still exploit the population tendencies. Population analysis is a very powerful tool. With it we can get a good idea how an average player in our player pool plays. For example if we known an average guy cbets the flop 60% of the time, we can think that an unknown opponent is quite likely to play like this also.

I have made a short population analysis using a sample size of about 1.4 million hands that covered a bit over 100k different villains. When we are talking about population analysis, this sample is not that big. For example it would be difficult to analyze very specific spots e.g. see how villains react on specific board textures or cards. But the sample size I used should be enough for basic stats and some more advanced ones too. For example, seeing how often villain raises the river with 2pairs or better, or how often he has a draw when he raises the flop.

The full analysis is 8 pages long and has over 150 different stats. All of the hands are played during 2017 and the beginning of 2018 at PokerStars. The limits were NL2 – NL25. The Zoom/Regular split was about 50/50.

You can buy the full analysis for 14€. In case you don’t want to pay the full price immediately, you can also just buy the basic stats for 7€ and then upgrade it with advanced stats (5€) and lines (5€). I will update these files every now and then but considering the amount of work that goes into this, the updates will be infrequent. If you want to get notified when I have made some updates or have new content available, please subscribe:

You can buy these from the shop.

Here is what you will get:

Basic

  • Raise first in, Cold call, 3bet, 4bet – stats for every position
  • Fold to steal and re-steal stats
  • Aggression frequency and aggression factor for every street
  • Donk stats (also fold vs donk, raise vs donk and some other stats)
  • Cbet stats (Total, IP and OOP stats for every street. Total stats for cbet flop MW and in 3bet pots)
  • How villain reacts after skipping a cbet OTF and OTT
  • Fold to cbet stats (also IP and OOP on every street, and in 3bet pots)
  • General raise stats, fold vs raise and some misc. stats about his next actions after raising / calling a raise

Advanced

  • Average open ranges (made by looking at range graph and checking what hands are most often in villains’ opening range)
  • Visual presentation of 5bet range and more analysis about that
  • Fold to steal and re-steal stats vs minraise, 2.1bb-2.9bb (most often 2.5bb raise) and 3x or bigger
  • How often players steal with different sizings
  • Total Fold to Flop Cbet vs 0-40% bet, 40-60% bet and 60%+ bet

Lines

  • How often Bet – Bet – Bet is 2pair+ or total air
  • How often Call – Call – Donk is 2pair+ or total air
  • How often flop raises are 2pair+, draw or total air
  • How often turn raises are 2pair+, draw or total air
  • How often river raises are 2pair+ or air
  • Strength of limp-3bet
  • Strength of river bet that is 95% or bigger
  • Strength of river bet that is under 40%
  • Strength of flop donks (different stats for 1bb donks and 70%+ donks)
  • How often villain limp-calls pre and folds vs flop bet.